The National Energy Efficiency Strategy (NEES) released in 2005 set a national target for energy efficiency improvement of 12% by 2015 compared to a 2000 baseline. This monitoring system envisaged to accompany the roll-out of the NEES, however, is still under development and there has been no monitoring of the NEES to date. This makes it difficult to rigorously assess progress towards meeting this target. Consequently this blog provides a non-rigorous glance at what the available data can tell us about South Africa’s energy efficiency performance between 2000 and 2012.Over this period, energy intensity decreased by 13.2 percent and electricity intensity by a whopping 25.4 percent.
Over the same period, the contribution of the tertiary sector (which is typically less energy-intensive than the primary and secondary sectors) to GDP increased by 8 percent (to 69.6 percent), while the contribution of the primary sector fell by almost a third (to 7.9 percent). It is clear that the energy intensity picture in South Africa is changing over time. What is not clear yet, however, is whether this is predominantly due to increased energy efficiency and decoupling between economic growth and energy use, or whether this is being driven by structural changes to the South African economy.
A cost-benefit analysis is only as good as the assumptions that underlie it. If a rigorous assessment of the relative merits of exploiting Karoo Basin shale gas is to be undertaken, it is important that these two factors (amongst other critical assumptions – on both the cost and benefit side of the analysis) are considered in detail.