Lauralyn Kaziboni (5 Min Read)
Digitalisation has undoubtedly created new industries accompanied by unique job opportunities. However technologies such as robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) are rendering a significant proportion of the existing jobs obsolete: one estimation suggested 41% of the current jobs in South Africa will be automated, though the time horizon is unclear (Business Tech, 2019). Consequently, companies are demanding new skill sets required to improve production systems and increase efficiencies in a highly competitive environment.
Technological advancements, along with their impact on existing jobs, come at a time when the South African economy is struggling to employ more people. The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (Q 3/2019) recorded South Africa’s official unemployment rate at 29.1%, and at 38.5% if discouraged workers are included. The stats are more acute among the youth population (ages 15 to 34), where 40.4% are not employed nor enrolled in education or training. This is the country’s highest unemployment rate since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Over the past decade, South Africa’s economy has been unable to grow and transform quickly enough to absorb the fast-growing working-age population (World Bank, 2018). The country’s industrial base has failed to diversify into growth-enhancing industrial and engineering activities that are necessary for employment creation (Zavareh, et al., 2018). While the high levels of unemployment can be explained by SA’s poor economic growth and weakening competitiveness, technological change will likely displace even more jobs.
A study by Accenture (2018) identified a list of occupations that are at risk of being displaced by technological advancements, which are tabulated below. The methodology identified tasks (activities within an occupation) that can be automated, and those that still require a human element e.g. advising and teaching people, and negotiating and cooperating with workers. The high incidence of automation among certain occupations was informed by the proportion of activities that are predictable and repetitive, and can, therefore, be deferred to machines. In the production industry, 61% of an assembler’s tasks can be automated, while the balance can be left with the employee. This is also the case for office and administrative support where 57% of a book-keeper’s tasks can be automated (see Table 1). Consequently, jobs which can be undertaken more efficiently and precisely by robots stand to be automated.
Table 1: The top 10 jobs at risk in SA.
The study results are borne out by some recent examples from South Africa. Standard Bank and Absa Group have announced plans for restructuring that will include automating several banking services, placing certain jobs at risk. Multichoice recently announced that it will be introducing automated technologies, given the move away from voice calls and walk-in centres towards self-service technologies (Mahlakoana, 2019). In the energy sector, the move from fossil fuels towards cleaner energies shifts the labour demand from power plant operators and coal extraction workers, towards solar engineers and data analysts that can manage smart grids and energy-efficient systems (Nedlac, 2019).
Digitalisation will undoubtedly change the nature of existing jobs and create different ones as industries change (Malinga, 2019). Preparing the education and skills development system for future work is therefore becoming increasingly crucial. Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) subjects are closely related to the emerging areas of AI, robotics, and data analytics, and need to be restructured to meet today’s skills’ requirements (Penprase, 2018). As it stands, South Africa’s education system is not equipped to deliver job-ready employees and requires restructuring. In doing so, policy makers will also need to be cognisant of how new technologies and changes in economic power impact individuals across different socio-economic profiles (Penprase, 2018). This is especially important in South Africa where high levels of poverty and inequality are pervasive.
The private sector also has a key role to play. By removing (or at least minimising) operating constraints, the private sector should be encouraged to innovate and adopt new technologies (Rodrik, 2018). In this way, companies can move towards higher value-added products, and in the process, introduce employees to new opportunities. Several companies have embraced advanced technologies linked to automation and predictive maintenance while maintaining (and even increasing) their staff complement. Such companies have done so by acquiring new technologies coupled with implementing company-level initiatives that upskill existing employees e.g. on-the-job training and skills-transfer programmes with leading international companies (see Kaziboni, et al. (2019) for such examples). Not only does this increase output and revenue, but it also provides a natural progression for employees towards occupations that require higher levels of skills, thereby addressing structural unemployment (Smith, 2018).
As it stands, the net impact of technology on jobs is uncertain, yet there is evidence that the changes will occur rapidly and bring profound change. If this transition is managed well, it could lead to a new age of work, better jobs and improved standards of living. However, if the process is ill-managed, it could widen the skills gap, increase unemployment, increase inequality and continue marginalising the poor (WEF, 2018). AI, big data, virtual reality, Internet of Things and other technologies demand highly skilled labour. In South Africa, this will require the government and private companies to work together and as quickly as possible to prepare the education and skills development system for the digital age.
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