Donald Trump’s election as the President of the United States has significant global importance. South Africa, like many other countries, may face considerable impacts from Trump’s decisions, particularly those regarding international trade.
The American President’s “America First” trade policy of trade protectionism for the US, aimed not only at promoting investment and development within America but also at addressing “unfair and unbalanced trade” between America and other countries, could see US tariffs imposed on numerous countries, which would hurt their exports to the US. (Ergocun, 2024; Paton, 2025; Erasmus, 2025)
Since his inauguration in 2025, President Trump’s proposed stance on trade has been reinforced. On the night he was sworn into office, he stated “Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens” (de Wet, 2024), and his actions have spoken louder than his words. Tariffs on Colombia were briefly threatened, tariffs on Mexico and Canada are seemingly still set for implementation, and tariffs on China have been imposed (York, 2025; Reuters, 2025).
South Africa has also found itself in President Trump’s sights. He has declared that he will be “cutting off all future funding to South Africa” pending an investigation into South Africa’s Land Expropriation Act, and as the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has stated that he will not be attending the G20 talks in South Africa due to the country “doing very bad things” (Aljazeera, 2025; Reuters, 2025).
It seems like it is only a matter of time before the US imposes some further penalty on South Africa, and given his global stance on tariffs, this may come in the form of additional customs duties on imports. It is also increasingly unlikely that the trade preferences that South Africa currently receives in the US though AGOA, will be continued. This is perhaps the lesser evil – see prior analysis by Yash Ramkolowan and Gracelin Baskaran on South Africa’s exposure to AGOA, here. For these reasons, it is important to review South Africa’s current trade with the US and to consider the likely focus and impact of possible tariff increases.
The US as an export destination for South Africa
Figure 1 shows South Africa’s largest export destinations over 2022-2023. The country’s largest export destinations include China, the US, and Germany, with some African countries including Mozambique and Botswana also appearing as important export destinations.
Figure 1: South Africa’s top 10 export destinations (average 2022-2023)
Source: Own calculations based on ITC Trade Map data
Figure 2 presents a historical perspective of South Africa’s top 5 export destinations from 2004-2023. Whereas the US has consistently been one of South Africa’s 3 largest export destinations, it has lost considerable market share to China, which overtook the US as South Africa’s largest country export destination in 2009. It is however important to note that most of the growth in exports to China is accounted for by a handful of commodity exports, whereas South Africa’s exports to the US are more diversified.
Figure 2: South Africa’s top export markets (share of total SA exports)
Source: Own calculations based on ITC Trade Map data
Figure 3 shows that the US has consistently imported between 6%-10% of South Africa’s total exports, hovering closer to 9% in recent years. On the flip side, Figure 3 shows that imports from South Africa made up between 0.3%-0.6% of the US’ total imports. This confirms that despite all of the rhetoric, South Africa is not that important to the US, at least in overall trade terms.
Figure 3: US imports from SA
Source: Own calculations based on ITC Trade Map data
South Africa’s vulnerable products
At a high-level, it appears that the US is a moderately important export destination for South Africa, while the US sources very little in terms of total imports from SA. However, looking beyond the aggregate data, there may be specific South African sectors, products or companies that depend heavily on the US for a large proportion of their global exports, or certain South African products that account for a particularly large share of US imports. It is these products that are likely to be most vulnerable to any increase in tariffs in the US market.
Using average import values from 2022-2023, Table 1 lists all South African products (at the HS4 digital level) that:
- Account for a large share of South Africa’s total exports – South Africa’s global exports of these products make up more than 0.5% of South Africa’s world export basket; and
- Depend heavily on the US market – US imports from South Africa make up more than 5% of South Africa’s world exports of these products.
Only 10 of the approximately 1,200 products exported by South Africa (at the HS 4-digit level) meet both criteria.
Table 1: South African products at-risk (average 2022-2023)
Source: Own calculations based on ITC Trade Map data
Based on this short-list, it is clear that South Africa’s exports of metal and mineral products are at most at risk from US tariffs. Specifically, platinum group metals (PGM), articles of precious metal, diamonds, unwrought aluminium, ferro-alloys, unwrought nickel and waste and scrap metal products make up a large portion of South Africa’s total exports and are very reliant on the US market. PGM products for example, account for around 13% of South Africa’s world exports, and just under 20% of these exports go to the USA. Exports of motor vehicles, centrifuges and to a lesser degree citrus fruit, are also particularly vulnerable.
The third column provides an indication of how heavily US tariffs could hurt South Africa’s overall exports of these products. Apart from PGM, no single product accounts for more than 1% of South Africa’s world exports, though between them, exports to the US of these 11 products contribute 6% of South Africa’s world exports. Column four demonstrates the extent to which the US relies on South Africa for its imports of these 11 products. Again, PGM stands-out, with 38% of the US’s total PGM imports also coming from South Africa. A tariff on this group of products may harm exports from South Africa, but unless an alternative source can be found domestically or internationally, the impact on the US would be equally severe. South Africa also accounts for a disproportionately large share of the US’s imports of precious metals, ferro-alloys, unwrought nickel, and citrus fruit.
The final column shows how much of the US’s total imports from South Africa are concentrated in these products. Together, these 11 products explain almost 70% of US imports from South Africa. Punitive tariffs on this small sub-set of products would eliminate or greatly reduce a very large share of South Africa’s exports to the US.
Should South Africa worry?
The US is an important export market for South Africa and is a particularly important destination for a small group of largely mineral and metal-based exports. If the US elects to target these 11 products (or hit South Africa with a large general tariff increase), exporters of these products will suffer significantly in the short-term. On the other hand, many of these products are commodity-based, are traded globally and will find alternative buyers and markets. The overall impact on prices of these commodities is uncertain – and will depend on the extent to which the US is able to make up for lost international supply, domestically; or whether US importers will have to absorb the higher (tariff-laden) cost.
Much will also depend on the tariffs charged by the US on imports from other countries and how they respond. If tariffs are raised on US imports of citrus from Mexico and not (or not as much) on imports from South Africa, there may be opportunities for South Africa to increase exports to the USA. On the other hand, if the US is effectively closed to citrus exports, then South Africa may face increased competition from Mexican producers in the EU or even at home. The net impact is highly uncertain!
For South Africa, it is important to monitor developments in the USA and elsewhere very closely, constantly review the likely implications of unilateral tariff increases on our own exports and those of our competitors, and ensure that exporters of these products are aware of both the significant risks and opportunities that these changes may bring.
References
Aljazeera. (2025). US top diplomat Rubio to skip G20 over ‘anti-Americanism’. Retrieved from Aljazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/6/rubio-trumps-top-diplomat-to-skip-g20-over-anti-americanism
de Wet, P. (2024). Trump inaugurated, promises to make Americans rich by taxing other countries. Retrieved from News24: https://www.news24.com/news24/world/news/trump-inaugurated-promises-to-make-americans-rich-by-taxing-other-countries-20250121
Erasmus, G. (2025, 02 05). What does Trump’s America First policy mean for international trade? Retrieved from Business Day: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2025-02-05-gerhard-erasmus-what-does-trumps-america-first-policy-mean-for-international-trade/
Ergocun, G. (2024). Trump’s return: Global economy braces for tariffs, protectionist US trade policy. Retrieved from AA: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/2024-us-presidential-election/trumps-return-global-economy-braces-for-tariffs-protectionist-us-trade-policy/3389158
Escaith, H. (2012). Understanding international trade statistics. World Trade Organisation.
ITC Trade Map. (2025). ITC Trade Map. Retrieved from ITC Trade Map: https://www.trademap.org/
OEC. (2024). South Africa. Retrieved from OEC Country Profiles: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/zaf
Paton, C. (2025). SA’s biggest economic risks in 2025, from Trump to the ANC succession battle. Retrieved from News24: https://www.news24.com/fin24/opinion/sas-biggest-economic-risks-in-2025-from-trump-to-the-anc-succession-battle-20250115
Reuters. (2025). South African rand firms after change in Trump’s tariff stance. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/south-african-rand-weaker-trumps-changing-tariff-stance-2025-02-04/
UN Comtrade Database. (2025). Trade Data. Retrieved from UN Comtrade Database: https://comtradeplus.un.org/TradeFlow
York, E. (2025). Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War. Retrieved from Tax Foundation: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/